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Ryan’s Every Bit as Good at +/– as Ravens

Posted by Randy Lange on September 12, 2010 – 10:21 am

Takeaways vs. giveaways. Turnover margin. The old plus-minus. It’s been a touchstone for football coaches for a while in explaining why a given opponent is so dangerous or how their own teams managed to lose particular win-worthy games.

Rex Ryan brought the subject up this past week when he was delving into why the Baltimore Ravens are such a tough out. He mentioned about how strong the Birds’ front seven is in stopping the run and getting after the QB.

“It’s not going to be easy, that’s for sure. This is a team that, over the years, when they win the turnover battle, they generally win, like, 45 out of 47 times since 2003. I’m just throwing a number out there,” Ryan said with a smile. “We have to do a great job of protecting the football.

That figure didn’t include postseason games. With the playoffs thrown in, Baltimore since ’03 has won 48 of 51 games (.941 winning percentage) in which it had at least a plus-1 turnover differential. Since ’04 the record is 39-2 (.951). Since ’05 it’s 32-1 (.970), with the only loss coming last season at home when the Ravens took a 15-14 fourth-quarter lead on Indianapolis, only to lose to the Colts, 17-15. That’s how close that mark is to being perfect over the past five years.

You can see where I’m going with this.

Ryan didn’t mention it, either out of modesty or because he wanted us all to connect the dots on our own. But his coaching was a major contributor to the Ravens’ record in plus turnover games from ’03, when he became the D-line coach, through ’08, his fourth season as D-coordinator.

Then add in his first year as the Jets’ head coach. Of the 19 games the Green & White played last season, they had a plus turnover margin in 10 of them. They won all 10.

So let’s use the ’05 opening day as the jumping-off point. Since then, the Ravens are the aforementioned 32-1 in plus games.

Ryan’s teams are 34-0.

The lesson: Don’t give a turnover to Rex or to the Ravens. Each may take a victory along with it.

The NFL’s TO Record

The league, heading into today’s 13-game Kickoff Weekend slate, isn’t quite as good as Rex or the Ravens when it comes to winning plus games, but the record illustrates the wisdom of taking care of the ball.

Since 2003, including playoffs, NFL teams that register at least a plus-1 takeaway margin won nearly 80 percent of their games (1,161-296-1, .797). The rule of thumb is that roughly a team that goes plus-1 will win 70 percent of the time, plus-2, 80 percent, plus-3, 90 percent, and plus-4-plus, nearly 100 percent.

Opening Night Reminders

Two points we wanted to stress again for fans planning on attending Monday night’s opener. Everyone’s heard Green Day will be performing at halftime, but you also don’t want to miss the concerts on the New Meadowlands Stadium plaza before the game.

From 5:30-6:30 p.m. outside the Jets Shop Flagship Store powered by Reebok, be sure to take in Slash, former lead guitarist of Guns N’ Roses, performing alongside lead singer Myles Kennedy and special guests Nicole Scherzinger, lead singer of the Pussycat Dolls and “Dancing with the Stars” champion, and Jason Bonham.

And for the folks at home near the Meadowlands as well as the thousands in the NMS stands right before kickoff, be advised that the U.S. Air Force is supporting the Jets’ pregame activities with a B-2 Spirit Stealth bomber flyover. The mission will be supported by Air Force Global Strike Command’s 509th Bomb Wing, flying out of Whiteman AFB in Missouri.

The aircraft is scheduled to be directly over the stadium at 7:08 p.m., which means it will be directly over the ceremonial full-field American flag unfurled by members of all five uniformed services.


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Posted in Randy Lange | 34 Comments »


34 Responses to “Ryan’s Every Bit as Good at +/– as Ravens”

  1. By carl on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    I CAN’T WAIT!!!!! GO JETS

  2. By IRA on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    Randy, Those are telling stats and it really does sum it up. Force turnovers and take care of the ball and you will win.
    Nice pullout section in todays NY daily News put together by Randy,EA and Nick. Its a good read.

  3. By Randy Lange on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    Ira, thanks for the shoutout about the Daily News pullout. I thought EA’s schedule story was an exceptional centerfold and Nick Gallo’s stadium tour gave some great “flavor” of what’s ahead for fans who haven’t gotten to the new place yet but are going Monday night or in the weeks ahead. And a special thanks to Andrew Agro for coordinating the section with the DN.

  4. By GaryC on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    Message to Shotty, give Sanchez and Slauson help,throw some screen passes during the game especially the side where Suggs is going to blitz from.he definitely is coming with stunts to see what slauson can handle.

  5. By Ray on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    I’m watching some of the Bengals vs. the Pasties and Nugent just nailed a 54 yarder that would have been good from 58, and then he puts the kickoff 5 yds deep in the endzone….where was that when he was here?

  6. By IRA on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    Well guess after one half i was wrong about the Pats defense. Yes they are young and untested but they are so much faster in the secondary and their safties really come up fast to make plays. Teams will play action those safeties all day once they get some tape on them. But their D will be better than i thought.

  7. By charliejet on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    Good for Rex! teams I think Rex came in with a positive attitude since day one. The man is trying to shake off the “Same ole’ Jets” mentality better that attitude then a defeatist attitude. I rather the team have a bull’s eye target to the rest of the league with a swagger attitude. Rex is exorcising the S.O.J. attitude. I get the feeling if Rex had his own way he wouldn’t want to share a stadium with the Giants and the Jets have there own home. Good for REX. GO JETS! J.E.T.S. JETS JETS JETS

    GARYC – I couldn’t agree more – do the Jets even have any screens in the playbook?

  8. By Mike Jet Vet on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    Anyone questioning Rex’s tactics now hope this proves there’s a method to his madness ? again I will say like so many times before let him talk till he go’s horse its no fluke he’s 34-0 when winning the turnover battle… those who worry about Rex’s words resulting in Jets not able to cash his checks as they so eloquently put it, Ravens have been cashing in for some time .Then him at the helm our 1st year Jets cashed a few as well with much against him I might add..Best worry about Sanchez learning the offence not turning the ball over 5 times a game V-G making contact not shying away from it Taylor stepping in picking up the slack for pace Revis coming back to form you know the real concerns .. where Rex is concerned I’m thinking leave well enough alone let him do what he does best win games

  9. By Jets Fan Since '64 Tom on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    Speaking of stats, who was it who was telling me how vastly superior Marshall is to Holmes? Well, it’ll be a cold day in hell when Holmes has 8 catches for 53 yards and a 6.6. average per catch, like Marshall did today against that tough Buffalo defense. Like I said about his 20 catch game for a 10-yard average, Marshall isn’t nearly the deep or even intermediate threat Holmes is, and that’s why getting Holmes was the right move.

  10. By IRA on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    Ray, It was at times in his last camp with the Jets. Nugent made a 54 yd FG vs Hou at home on 11/26/06. Which tied him with Hall for the 3rd or 4th longest FG in Jets history. Leahy,Hall[opener in Sea 97]and Feely last year all made 55 yarders. Of course these stats come from some of Randy’s recorded stats. Maybe Nugent just needed some of that Ohio air all summer to get him back on track. Great guy and wish him well.

  11. By Alex G on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    what’s the NFL talking about?? regarding Peter Kings interview and Darrel Revis stating that he may hold out again in 2 ys???? is this some kind of joke.

  12. By Justin on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    Ira, this home opener and season i get to be home, so no more ” Hello from Iraq”, now it is Hello from Texas. Just want you and the Jets to know that you are at least being supported all the way from NY/NJ to TX. Great things this season, GO JETS!!!

  13. By IRA on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    Very happy to see that Leon played today. 6 carries for only 12 yds. I believe he will get better and better as the season goes on. Way to go Leon.

  14. By Ed in Tucson on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    Because of the stats featured in this article, I fear the long pass from MS. Of the 3 possible results, only 1 is good. I second the call for screen plays, as well as misdirection & draw plays & an occasional option pass from BS would be the way to exploit the Ravens’ aggressive D. I still say Rob Gronkowski would have looked great in green & white; he had a nice opening day for the Pats.

  15. By GioD on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    I hope the JETS will be ready tomorrow night, I don’t see them to focus on the game as they should be. Too many distractions!!!

  16. By kimosabe on Sep 12, 2010 | Reply

    Alex…the answer is NO !!

  17. By 37 year fan on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    Ed in Tucson I am with you on ” The Gronk ” we took a corner , did we even need a corner ? We could have ….And should have took him in round 1 . BUT we’ve done well in the draft the last 6 -7 years so I’m not complaining . But I think we missed that one for sure … I thought Parcells was going to snag him…. We’re gonna have to go to war with that guy for 10 years

  18. By scjoe on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    All of those stats stretching back 35-40 games don’t mean squat in this game coming up. It is a given if Sanchez , or anyone for that matter turns the ball over twice or more it will be very difficult to win this game, the Ravens have to much balance on offense and defense. So, barring any turnovers or horrible penalties at the worse possible time I will say…Jets 17 Bal. 10

  19. By Craig J. on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    Don’t anyone worry about da Jets tomorrow night. All’s well that will end well.
    Sanchez will be fine, and defense will play lights-out! Defensive scheme will be Ryanesque. Ravens will be down trodden to mere hummingbirds.
    Pats sent a message, and Jets will too. They’ll respond to the message that pretty boy Brady & Co sent out to da Jets this afternoon.

  20. By Ed in Tucson on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    I’d like to see LT or BS throw an option pass from a screen pass early in the first drive. Even if we don’t score on it, it would make the D have to think about that possibility when deciding how much beef to pack in the box. I would call that kind of play as the very first play of the season, send a message to the league’s DCs – stack the box at your peril. You don’t need to throw long to spread the D, make them run sideline to sideline early to wear them out. And always pound & ground, keep Flacco & Co on the bench. Ball control is the winning formula. Jets win 28-18; GO JETS!

  21. By IRA on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    Justin,
    First of all God Bless you and all the other troops in Iraq for doing what you do and taking care of us. Very happy you are home and will enjoy a great Jets season from the states.
    GioD, Yeah the front pages are not good today but lets wait and see what happens with these allegations. Seems the Jets dealt with it the right way last night. Believe me they are completely focused and will be ready to play tonight. Its going to be a tough game and can see this going either way 20-17. As Randy wrote above turnovers will likely be the difference in winning or losing this game. No room for mistakes tonight.
    GO JETS!!!!!

  22. By Rick Roucoulet on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    Who’s this Ines Sainz kidding? A female TV correspondent who calls herself “the hottest sports reporter in Mexico” & is threatened by male football players in a lockerroom hooting & hollering @ her??? Not any different when cheerleaders come out on the field. She also has done bikini photo spreads which tells me shes pretty confident w/her sexuality & what attracts the opposite sex. Just sounds like someone looking for more attention or a BIG payday. Get over yourself Ms. Sainz, ive seen hotter.

  23. By GaryC on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    yes revis talking holdout already before the ink is even dry. makes you wonder why ryan kept trying to schmooze with Sean Gilbert trying to make everything fine and dandy.Jets will rue the day they did not trade this guy for draft picks and another corner.Like I said this guy will not be happy until he is the highest paid corner.

  24. By Nakia on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    I love the JETS!!! I’m so excited, I’m counting down the hours. We are going to be a muscle machine. I can’t wait for the pre game events. I’m having heart palpitations just thinking about it.

  25. By Mike Jet Vet on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    Turnovers ..who to trust with the ball Flacco or Sanchez ? I’m going to plead the 5th on that one folks ..I believe our defence will play good enough to win its the offence I have a problem with if preseason is any indication of how well prepared they are then you make the call they were horrible.. since preseason begun I’ll say I’ve watched at least 12 games with the exception of dallas and us every team looks ready to go.. Ira Bills Defence did play well very well their offence lost that game.. One other observation has anyone else noticed well in the games I’ve watched anywho defences all attacking with defences similar to Jets and Ravens bringing corners and linebackers off the edges more then usual .. Rex some new wrinkles on O and D please B-Smith needs to be involved some wildcat passing running bootleg you know what he does best ..Hate to sound repetitive E-Smith and Diggs need to play most of this game at safety Lowery gives up way to many big plays

  26. By Ed in Tucson on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    37 yf, ironically, that corner might wind up facing the formidable task of covering the 6’7″ behemoth. Pats looked scary good yesterday. Either that or the Bengals aren’t as good as some “experts” have been making them out to be. Moss & Welker will probably draw Cro & DR, leaving Wilson to cover the Gronk; that will be a big test of his ability. But, let’s worry about that next week. Tonight we need to focus on making the Ravens croak “nevermore!”.

  27. By GaryC on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    jets need to be careful, revis island may become three mile island,very toxic.

  28. By Anthony on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    CANNOT WAIT for the game tonight. Give them hell Jets…J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS

  29. By Jets Fan Since '64 Tom on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    Great to have you back, Justin, thanks for your service! These various investigations of the Jets are nonsense, if you’ll recall the same thing was in the air at the start of last season. I suspect there are just some folks around the league envious of the Jets’ talent and the smarts of their front office but that’s too bad, they’re gonna have to deal with us like it or not and cheap shots won’t put points on the board.

  30. By Aten on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    Are the Game Releases no longer being posted on the website?

  31. By Randy Lange on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    Aten, it’s good to know you liked the availability of the game releases. Due to our migration to the NFL platform, posting the weekly game releases is one thing we haven’t gotten to yet but I will see what we can do beginning with New England.

  32. By Casey on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    I’m missing my one year anniversary w/ my girlfriend to go to the game tonight :)

    Cant wait

  33. By 37 year fan on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    J……E …….T……S………JETS ……JETS ……..JETS . ….. I’m Amped ….One Hour ’till kickoff …..Butterflies …..

  34. By charliejet on Sep 13, 2010 | Reply

    Please someone tell me that this is some sick joke that Revis will want to renegotiate in 2 years. Are you kidding me?

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